First citation in article [9], There are different types of integrated assessment models. Because these policy questions differ in their nature and are best investigated through various computational tools, and given that researchers located in different nations or coming from different disciplinary fields have attempted to address them, IAMs vary immensely. You could not be signed in, please check and try again. Second, models may vary in the level of detail with which they portray a specific domain. They must cover the full global economy, either including interacting macro-regions or assuming a global planner. the assessment of precipitation, extreme climate events, and the economic impacts of regional climate change are important for the development of the IAM. [33], Integrated assessment models have not been used solely to assess environmental or climate change-related fields. [14] Moreover, these models have underpinned research including energy policy assessment[15] and simulate the Shared socioeconomic pathways. (2019) analyze the implications of national policies on global emissions. In addition, a growing number of IAMs report key features online, and similar documentation accompanies IPCC reports (e.g., IAMC wiki—IAMC-Documentation). IAMs are an essential tool in the climate policymakers’ toolkit. State-of-the-art detailed process IAMs provide important information on the multiple impacts of climate change and their interactions. Understanding the size of the gap helps countries to assess their efforts, and associated data are a key input to international climate negotiations. As it becomes clearer that carbon pricing must be a large part of the solution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the importance and influence of IAMs can only continue to increase. Climate Change: Initial issues of interest. In 1980, a letter to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Climate Research Board by a group of scientists led by Thomas Schelling concluded that too little was known about the socioeconomic implications of climate change and that the timing of the problem has to be understood better (Schelling et al., 1980). Note that what the authors refer to as climate models should instead be called IAMs. The 1985 report introduced one of the main streams of research performed with IAMs: comparing benefits of avoided climate impacts and costs of decarbonization efforts in climate change mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are simplified mathematical descriptions of reality that integrate knowledge from two or more disciplinary domains (e.g., climate sciences and economics) into a single framework. Our perspective is rooted in the needs of U.S. institutions responsible for designing and implementing climate policy, specifically regulatory agencies within the executive branch and Congress should it choose to take up climate legislation. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) for climate change refers to a broad category of research approaches in climate change. The Economics of Climate Change –C 175 The economics of climate change C 175 ‐Ch i tiChristian TTraeger Part 6: Integrated Assessment Background/Further reading: Nordhaus, W. D. & J. Boyer (2000), Warming the World, MIT Press. Indeed, the two types of models are complementary in many ways and should be used in tandem. Annual Review of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering Air and Water: Integrated Assessment Models for Multiple Media David A. Keiser and Nicholas Z. Muller Annual Review of Resource Economics Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point Derek Lemoine and Ivan Rudik A prominent example would be the analysis of the technologies and strategies required to reach a global emissions scenario compatible with a 2°C target by the end of the 21st century, as analyzed in Clarke et al. The economists, although acknowledging the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, the role of fossil fuel burning as its main cause, and the implications on global temperatures as its main effect, also emphasized the uncertainties surrounding the socioeconomic impact of alternative future carbon dioxide trajectories and associated changes in climate. Fourth, the real-world feasibility of some of the decarbonization strategies emerging from IAM studies is questionable. Integrated assessment models and the social cost of carbon: a review and assessment of U.S. experience. To perform such a calculation, the model must include estimates of the macroeconomic impact of an increase in global temperature. The necessity of studying interdisciplinary interactions between these components, as for example in the case of climate change, has led to the creation of unifying and consistent frameworks that involve multiple components to more effectively evaluate the status and the consequences of environmental change and policy responses to it. The consortium has the explicit objective of convening the process of scenario generation. By 2010, in preparation for the IPCC’s fifth assessment report and a new generation of emission scenarios, various IAM groups, including many newcomers and representing more than 20 countries, established the IAM Consortium. Integrated assessment modeling is a tool for conducting an integrated assessment. G Cornelis van Kooten. A comprehensive review of this literature can be found in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (Clarke et al., 2014) and Special Report on Global Warming (Rogelj et al., 2018). What is the “optimal” increase in temperature? [11] These models typically do not assume rational and representative agents, nor market equilibrium in the long term. Economic implications of a subset of these impacts can also be assessed (e.g., the economic implications of reduced agricultural yields, the capital costs due to increased flooding) and aggregated in a reduced form equation referred to as “damage function,” which allows a comparison of various monetary implications of mitigation activities. The investigation of least-cost investments, innovation, and technological strategies to meet long-term temperature targets have been an essential component of the research performed with IAMs. Fast and free shipping free returns cash on delivery available on eligible purchase. Uncertainty in climate outcomes and the pro-jection of future damages 3. This has the objective of allowing users to download, explore, and study produced data that can be questioned, scrutinized, and analyzed at will. [25], Non-equilibrium models include[26] those based on econometric equations and evolutionary economics (such as E3ME),[27] and agent-based models (such as the agent-based DSK-model). One of the key achievements of IAMs is their analysis of how humans contribute to GHG emissions. 9:143-163 (Volume publication date October 2017) First published as a Review in Advance on April 3, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-033533 Other applications may require representing multiple agents and their interactions, such as when modeling the adoption and penetration of a new technology (McCollum et al., 2017). However, as often happens in this period of highly specialized science, the two disciplines have been growing apart. The report was divided into two parts, the first authored by physical scientists and the second by economists (including William Nordhaus, who went on to win the Nobel prize for economics for his work with IAMs). These “detailed process” IAMs are significantly more complex and bring together standalone modules for land use and the climate system. This article considers the role of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in estimating the social cost of carbon (SCC) for U.S. regulatory purposes. (2014) emphasize that “this literature has important implications for the ‘damage function’ in climate change models, which consider how future changes in climate—i.e., future changes in the stochastic distribution of weather—will affect economic activity” (p. 741).1, Indeed, a set of key ingredients is crucial to performing a full-fledged benefit-cost analysis. It is important to note that since the very beginning, these two families of IAMs have coexisted and influenced each other. For example, numerous important energy transition questions have been addressed with IAMs, such as the economic implications of intermittent energy technologies, the role of nuclear power, the importance of decarbonizing the transport sector, and the role of negative emissions. The word assessment comes from the use of these models to provide information for answering policy questions. Choice of model structure and the type of results produced 2. A final important dimension over which these models may differ is the representation of agents. To address this critique, a number of efforts have been made within the benefit-cost IAMs community to include improved estimates of climate damages that also take uncertainty into account (Carleton & Hsiang, 2016). Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics [Wang, Zheng, Wu, Jing, Liu, Changxin, Gu, Gaoxiang] on Amazon.com. [26], Cost-benefit integrated assessment models are the main tools for calculating the social cost of carbon, or the marginal social cost of emitting one more tonne of carbon (as carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere at any point in time. (2016) and Harmsen et al. During the second half of the 1970s, although consensus on the anthropogenic influence on the increase of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and the resulting implications for average global temperatures had already coalesced, the socioeconomic implications of this phenomenon were still poorly understood. SternStern, N. (2007), The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. IAMs used to perform these analyses have been developed with a very detailed definition of the energy sector and, increasingly, a detailed definition of land use and related emissions. This book describes the principles of integrated assessment models (IAM) for climate change economics and introduces various computable models for different development mechanisms under climate change governance. For this reason, the use of benefit-cost IAMs to assess the optimal climate policy (e.g., the optimal increase in temperature with respect to preindustrial level) may be misleading and has been extensively criticized (Pezzey, 2019). : “How Integrated Assessment Models are Used to Study Climate Change.”. A key example of this is discussed in (Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, 2010). ", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Integrated_assessment_modelling&oldid=1007441516, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 18 February 2021, at 03:57. Evolving and focusing on one or more of these key policy questions, the large family of IAMs includes a wide array of tools that incorporate multiple dimensions and advances from a range of scientific fields. To guide climate change policymaking, we need to understand how technologies and behaviors should be transformed to avoid dangerous levels of global warming and what the implications of failing to bring forward such transformation might be. To mitigate such criticism, the code and extensive model documentation are now available online for several of these models (IAMC wiki—IAMC-Documentation; FUND Model; DICE/RICE models—William Nordhaus | Yale Economics). A User's Guide and Assessment Gilbert E. Metcalf Department of Economics Tufts University and NBER James Stock Department of Economics Harvard University and NBER February 2015 Abstract This paper considers the role of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in … In the context of climate change, IAMs have been developed to answer one or more of the following fundamental questions: What are the climate implications of a “baseline” or “business as usual” trajectory; that is, a scenario characterized by no meaningful action to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? Detailed process IAMs rarely include climate change economic effects on the macro economy. What are the multiple physical impacts associated with climate change? As noted in Greenstone et al. IAMs have contributed in many ways to the process of designing science-based strategies and policy responses to climate change. The consortium webpage provides information on the Scientific Steering Committee, the founder teams, and the models belonging to the consortium (IAMC—Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium). What techno-economic investments and strategies would achieve a given climate target at minimum cost? IAMs have produced RCPs that serve as key inputs for the climate science community. (2014) and IPCC (2018). In some cases, a single representative agent (the benevolent planner) is considered. In addition, they improve understanding of the impacts of various socioeconomic drivers, such as population, GDP growth, and technological change (Riahi et al., 2017). In 2000, the publication of the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakićenović, 2000) represented a turning point, as four storylines were developed to describe narratives of the future, and multiple teams worked on the quantification of such scenarios through a collection of IAMs. Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics In order to correct such a market failure, for instance by using a carbon tax, the cost of emissions is required. Starting with a focus on the connection between First, some models account for climate change damage feedback; that is, they translate the change in climatic conditions into the various impacts on natural ecosystems or into their socioeconomic implications. Huge efforts have been undertaken (Gillingham et al., 2018; Marangoni et al., 2017) to better gauge which findings are robust across models and how much they depend on key assumptions (e.g., long-term growth of the economy, monetary implications of climate damages, diffusion and cost of key mitigation technologies). Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) provide a framework that represents the current understanding of the system, identifies key relationships along with critical knowledge gaps, and explores likely trade-offs between environmental, economic, or social outcomes under alternative management options [4]. This research was done in the early 1970s and entailed projections up to 1990. Printed from Oxford Research Encyclopedias, Economics and Finance. Understanding the connections and interactions among energy, water, and land systems is crucial to achieving a comprehensive view not only of the implications of temperature changes but also of changes in sea levels, storm surges, snow and ice cover, and precipitation. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 11(1): 80–99. In particular, if damages are translated into economic impacts, then models can be used to perform a benefit-cost analysis of climate; that is, they can be used to balance the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation using the same monetary metric. This book describes the principles of integrated assessment models (IAM) for climate change economics and introduces various computable models for different development mechanisms under … IAMs used for this purpose need to be able to deal with a long-term temporal horizon, as climate-related damages occur far into the future. 2017 - Zheng Wang, Jing Wu, Changxin Liu, Gaoxiang Gu - ISBN: 9789811350061. Dell et al. These diverse computational tools have been referred to generally as IAMs, an ambiguity in language that has frequently generated confusion among scholars and users of these models (Evans & Hausfather, 2018). Free delivery on qualified orders. However, these models still have the crucial role in the policy discussion of setting the social cost of carbon (i.e., the monetized damages associated with an incremental increase in carbon emissions). In addition, research should highlight best practices for presenting these uncertainties. As the topic of science-based target slowly becomes central to the political, financial and macroeconomic scene, these tools will provide a common platform where to experiment and explore future decarbonization scenario. In 1995 the IPCC’s second assessment report introduced a specific working group to study the economic and social dimensions of climate change. Climate change is the most complicated global environmental problem. The link was not copied. Climate Change, Economics and Integrated Assessment Models. By the very nature of climate change, research has to be interdisciplinary and multifaceted. This stream of research has shown that current levels of emissions and business-as-usual scenarios could lead to an increase in global mean temperature as high as +4°C by 2100. [9] To quantify these integrated assessment studies, numerical models are used. In principle, every time a projection is made, the full exploration of uncertainties should be undertaken. It is therefore regularly contrary to the rhetoric of politicians, and occasionally politically incorrect. Some of these technological and economic transformations may be technically feasible but may not be realistic when political economy, international politics, human behaviors, and cultural factors are taken into consideration. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM) [lower-alpha 1] is a term used a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. A useful categorization of IAMs, which might be more relevant for some of the most recent debates, can be found in Pezzey (2019) and Weyant (2017). [23][24] While these scenarios are highly policy-relevant, interpretation of the scenarios should be done with care. First, most IAMs are not able to mimic extreme and discontinuous outcomes (Weyant, 2017). These models help researchers to understand possible implications of climate inaction. This limitation is often addressed to all IAMs, while it obviously makes sense solely when referring to benefit-cost IAMs. This book describes the principles of integrated assessment models (IAM) for climate change economics and introduces various computable models for different development mechanisms under climate change governance. [4] Other integrated assessment models also integrate other aspects of human development such as education,[5] health,[6] infrastructure,[7] and governance. Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. Although implications for the climate system are traditionally the focus of climate science research, IAMs can produce coarse but accurate projections of temperature change with the aid of emulators of complex global circulation models. Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics: Wang, Zheng, Wu, Jing, Liu, Changxin: Amazon.com.au: Books Although both types of IAMs include projections of GHG emissions and the costs of various approaches to mitigate them (e.g., energy conservation, changes in production processes, fuel switching), they handle climate change impacts differently. This distinction blurred over time, as each type of model developed to include more features of the other type, thereby creating a new class of hybrid models (Hourcade, Jaccard, Bataille, & Ghersi, 2006). Integrated models: Integrated assessment Hermann Lotze−Campen (lotze−campen@pik−potsdam.de) 1 Introduction Integrated assessment models try to link, within a single modelling framework, main features of society and economy with the biosphere and the atmosphere. (1979) report on carbon dioxide and the climate stated that: “It appears that the warming will eventually occur, and the associated regional climatic changes so important to the assessment of socioeconomic consequences may well be significant, but unfortunately the latter cannot yet be adequately projected” (Charney et al., 1979). These projections include emissions of all GHGs from all sectors (e.g., the energy sector, agriculture, heavy industries). Integrated assessment modelling Last updated January 25, 2020. The following are examples of the dimensions over which these models can differ. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM) [a] is a term used for a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The difference between short-term efforts and long-terms targets is referred to as the “Emissions Gap” (UNEP, 2019) and has been well reported thanks to research performed using IAMs. ... introducing the mechanism of evolutionary economics. (2013): “Monetized estimates of the economic damages associated with carbon dioxide emissions make it possible for benefit–cost analyses to incorporate the social benefits of regulatory actions that are expected to reduce these emissions.”. Huge efforts are now underway within the IAM community, in collaboration with several other disciplines, to better characterize feasibility along dimensions that are external to the models. Equity across time and space 4. Another novel idea was the argument in favor of pricing carbon: If carbon emissions produce negative effects on society that are not accounted for in economic and industrial planning, then associating a monetary value to such social costs allows internalization of this externality and ensures that excessive carbon emissions are not spewed in the atmosphere. Climate Analytics provides a primer on integrated assessment models and their results. IAMs also contribute to the understanding of the implications of policies identified within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the Nationally Determined Contributions, and how far these short-term policies go in terms of reducing emissions to meet long-term goals. As climate change is a global problem, it may be an acceptable simplification to consider humanity as a single entity, as when exploring key uncertainties driving long-term emissions projection (Gillingham et al., 2018). (2016). They evaluate the effects of national and international policies on global emissions and devise optimal emissions trajectories in line with long-term temperature targets and their implications for infrastructure, investment, and behavior. Both benefit-cost and detailed process IAMs have been extensively criticized (Ackerman, Decanio, Howarth, & Sheeran, 2009; Anderson & Peters, 2016; Pezzey, 2019; Pindyck, 2017; Stern, 2013). •Condemnation of climate ‘sceptics’ as deniers. Their findings show how far countries are from the efforts required to meet global temperature targets (e.g., the 2°C maximum increase in average temperature by the end of the 21st century described in the Paris Agreement). Second, although efforts are under way to better represent agents’ heterogeneity, most IAMs are still very simple in this respect (Rao, van Ruijven, Riahi, & Bosetti, 2017). Third, when projecting over a century, uncertainties are large and cannot be ignored. These IAMs have been used in contexts ranging from the Stern Review ( Stern, N. H., & Great Britain, 2007) to the U.S. interagency working group on the social cost of greenhouse gases (Pizer et al., 2014). IAMs are used to study a wide variety of environmental problems (e.g., acid rain, biodiversity loss). The field is vibrant, the use of the models in policymaking has been rapid and influential, and the development and use of the models under the scrutiny of critics is strong and on-going. In contrast, BC IAMs provide a more aggregated representation of climate change mitigation costs and aggregate impacts by sector and region into a single economic metric. To cite just a few examples, the practicality of the pace of short-term decarbonization implicit in some of these models’ results has been challenged (Loftus, Cohen, Long, & Jenkins, 2015). [34] It has been argued that "IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy". The goal of integrated assessment modelling is to accommodate informed policy-making, usually in the context of climate change [2] though also in other areas of human and social development. A recent research trend has been to model and account for societal goals other than climate change (e.g., Sustainable Development Goals) in order to understand the implications of deep decarbonization on these other important objectives. Secondly, there are models that aggregate the costs of climate change and climate change mitigation to find estimates of the total costs of climate change. One last important critique is that IAMs are “black boxes,” the functioning of which cannot be fully understood. Moving beyond the stylized benefit-cost IAMs and their overly simplified interpretation of climate damage, the latest efforts undertaken by detailed process IAMs attempt to take a holistic and truly integrated approach that includes climate change impacts on the natural and human systems. [28] For instance, the DICE,[29] PAGE,[30] and FUND[31] models have been used by the US Interagency Working Group to calculate the social cost of carbon and its results have been used for regulatory impact analysis. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM) is a term used for a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are mathematical computer models based on explicit assumptions about how the modeled system behaves. Amazon.in - Buy Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics book online at best prices in India on Amazon.in. Progress in this direction is crucial for representing distributional impacts associated with climate change or mitigation policies, mimicking the uptake and diffusion of mitigation technologies, and representing the heterogeneity of behaviors. Shared socioeconomic pathways (Moss et al., 2010; O’Neill et al., 2014) describe alternative futures of socioeconomic development in the absence of climate policy intervention (“baselines”). Although the notion of “feasibility” itself is debatable (Majone, 1975), outcomes of IAMs have been often defined as unfeasible. Read Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics book reviews & author details and more at Amazon.in. The six well-known models used in the study are representative of the In other contexts, it becomes critical to be able to represent at least one agent for each macro-region of the planet, for example when studying international climate agreements (Nordhaus & Yang, 1996).

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